They say that age is just a number, but in football, that number is extremely important.
他们说，年龄只是一个数字，但在足球领域，这个数字是极其重要的。
The notion of a “peak” player age — the time at which they are at the very best of their abilities — isn’t an overly new concept. Most fans recognise when players are raw, great or past it. Putting a number against that, however, isn’t overly straightforward.
球员 "巅峰 "年龄的概念--他们处于其能力最佳状态的时间--并不是一个过于新的概念。大多数球迷都能认识到球员在什么时候是生猛的、伟大的或过气的。然而，用一个数字来衡量，并不是太直接。
For example, how do you find out when the peak happens? And don’t players develop at different rates, with some being early starters and others being late bloomers? Do players in different positions peak at different points?
例如，你如何找出高峰期发生的时间？而且，球员的发展速度不尽相同，有些人是早起的，有些人是晚起的？不同位置的球员是否在不同的时间点达到高峰？
It’s all a bit of a headache, but here The Athletic dives into the science of player ages, considering how to measure them and what they are.
这一切都让人头疼，但在这里，The Athletic深入研究了球员年龄的科学，考虑了如何衡量它们以及它们是什么。
To get an understanding of how player age impacts performances, it’s important to first decide on a good metric to incapsulate performance in the first place.
为了了解球员年龄对表现的影响，首先要决定一个好的指标来概括表现。
This is a far easier task in other sports — particularly baseball and basketball — that have better, publicly available top-down metrics that can give an overarching notion of a player’s impact on his team’s ability to win. Metrics such as Wins Above Replacement in baseball or Value Over Replacement Player in basketball have their flaws, but mapping player ability by these metrics across the years can show the impact of age on performance.
这在其他运动中要容易得多--特别是棒球和篮球--因为它们有更好的、可公开获得的自上而下的指标，可以提供一个关于球员对其团队获胜能力的总体概念。诸如棒球中的 "高于替补球员的胜率 "或篮球中的 "高于替补球员的价值 "等指标有其缺陷，但通过这些指标对球员多年来的能力进行映射，可以看出年龄对表现的影响。
In football, it’s not as straightforward. For a start, the games are more fluid and the roles on the pitch are highly specific, even getting to the point when players that are playing in a given position do not play like someone who would traditionally play in that position at all (yes, I’m looking at you, Joao Cancelo).
在足球领域，这并不那么简单。首先，比赛更加流畅，球场上的角色非常具体，甚至到了这样的地步：在某个位置上踢球的球员根本不像是传统意义上在那个位置上踢球的人（是的，我在看着你，若昂-坎塞洛）。
Due to that positional variability, there’s not a single figure to explain performance for every role and position on the pitch in the same currency. Goals or expected goals per 90 are perhaps ideal stats to use to measure strikers, but that’s a poor stat to use for, say, centre-backs.
由于位置的可变性，没有一个单一的数字来解释球场上每个角色和位置的表现，以相同的货币。每90分钟的进球数或预期进球数也许是用来衡量前锋的理想数据，但对于中后卫来说，这是一个糟糕的数据。
Different metrics could be considered per position to get an overall understanding of how things change from a stylistic point of view, however. For example, here’s how many take-ons per 90 wingers average at different ages in the Premier League, inspired by previous work done by Colin Trainor.
然而，为了从风格的角度全面了解事情的变化，可以对每个位置考虑不同的指标。例如，以下是英超联赛中不同年龄段的边锋平均每90分钟有多少次进攻，这是受科林-特雷纳以前的工作启发。
Notably, as wingers age and lose their explosiveness, their tendency to take on defenders plummets. The young, high-energy players in their teens and early 20s are keen to dribble past as many players as possible, but their roles have to change a lot in their early 30s as they offer less of a direct one-on-one threat.
值得注意的是，随着边锋年龄的增长和爆发力的下降，他们对防守者的倾向性也直线下降。十几岁和二十岁出头的年轻高能量球员热衷于尽可能多地运球过人，但在三十岁出头时，他们的角色必须发生很大变化，因为他们提供的一对一直接威胁较少。
But metrics such as those don’t give a good indication of a player’s general effectiveness. They only offer an insight into how much (or little) of a given action they did on the field at a given age.
但是像这样的指标并不能很好地说明一个球员的总体效率。他们只提供了一个洞察力，即他们在特定年龄段在球场上做了多少（或很少）特定的动作。
Expected threat — and similar models that indicate how a player’s actions increase their team’s chances of scoring — might be a good alternative to use as it offers a common measure of value added across positions. Sadly, though, these possession value-type models only cater to the on-ball abilities of players, completely ignoring the defensive aspects of their performances.
预期威胁--以及表明球员的行为如何增加球队得分机会的类似模型--可能是一个很好的替代方案，因为它提供了一个衡量各位置附加值的共同标准。但可悲的是，这些占有价值类型的模型只迎合了球员的场上能力，完全忽略了他们表现的防守方面。
The solution, then, isn’t some fancy all-encompassing metric that tries to look at a player’s true value on the pitch. Such a model doesn’t exist, at least in the public sphere, and likely won’t for many years. No, the best stat to use here is just plain, basic minutes played.
那么，解决方案并不是一些花哨的、包罗万象的衡量标准，试图看看一个球员在球场上的真正价值。这样的模型并不存在，至少在公共领域是这样，而且可能很多年都不会存在。不，这里最好的统计是普通的、基本的出场时间。
There are several reasons for that. For a start, part of the impact of ageing on players isn’t just that their abilities drop off, but also that their bodies become less and less durable. It is a cliche, but the best ability is availability, and that’s a big factor when it comes to rating a player’s ability at any age.
这有几个原因。首先，年龄增长对球员的部分影响不仅仅是他们的能力下降，而且他们的身体也变得越来越不耐用。这是一个老生常谈的问题，但最好的能力就是可用性，当涉及到对任何年龄段的球员的能力进行评级时，这都是一个很大的因素。
Second, there is some implicit notion of a player’s quality captured in their minutes played. Managers pick their teams for many different reasons — form, injuries, suspension, player preference, tactics — but more often than not, they’ll want to play their best players to win a game. The mere presence of a player on the pitch, therefore, says something about how good they are.
第二，有一些隐含的概念，即一个球员的质量体现在他们的出场时间上。经理们出于许多不同的原因挑选他们的球队--形式、伤病、停赛、球员偏好、战术--但更多的时候，他们想用他们最好的球员来赢得比赛。因此，仅仅是球员在球场上的存在，就说明了他们有多优秀。
Finally, it’s also something that is fairly accessible for the past few seasons in the Premier League, and to calculate anything to do with peak ages and age curves, plenty of data is required.
最后，这也是过去几个赛季英超联赛中相当容易获得的东西，要计算任何与峰值年龄和年龄曲线有关的东西，需要大量的数据。
So in terms of minutes played, when do players look to peak? The chart below — inspired by the original work of Michael Caley — looks to answer that.
那么，就出场时间而言，球员何时会达到巅峰？下面的图表--灵感来自于迈克尔-卡利的原创作品--希望能够回答这个问题。
Both starts and substitute minutes are taken into account here from Premier League matches over the past decade, with the player ages on August 1 of every season taken into account. Players are split into one of seven different positional groups depending on where they featured in games.
这里考虑了过去十年英超比赛中的首发和替补时间，并考虑了每个赛季8月1日的球员年龄。球员被分成七个不同的位置组，这取决于他们在比赛中的表现。
The graphic below maps all ages between 18 and 38 years old, broken down by position. The colours on each scale denote the share of the total minutes played for each age, over the past 10 Premier League seasons.
下面的图表显示了18至38岁的所有年龄段，并按位置进行了细分。在过去的10个英超赛季中，每个刻度上的颜色表示每个年龄段在总出场时间中的份额。
The redder that the age is shaded, the higher the share of total minutes played for that age within their position.
年龄的阴影越红，说明该年龄段的人在其位置上的总出场时间份额越高。
Goalkeepers are the oldest positional group, with the latest peak age and plenty of players playing well into their early 30s too, as denoted by the lighter shading. It’s a position in which fewer opportunities are given to younger players, and experience seems to be prioritised over younger, fitter goalkeepers.
门将是最老的位置组，有最新的高峰年龄，也有很多球员踢到30岁出头，如浅色阴影所示。在这个位置上，年轻球员得到的机会较少，而且经验似乎比年轻、健康的门将更优先。
Centre-backs also peak relatively late, at around 27, with plenty of players featuring heavily in their late 20s and early 30s. As with goalkeepers, the nature of the role isn’t as comparatively physically demanding in terms of needing to hit top speeds or cover great distances. However, a player’s ability to read the game will improve with time, sometimes making up for the speed lost in a player’s later years.
中后卫的高峰期也相对较晚，大约在27岁左右，有很多球员在20多岁和30岁出头的时候就已经很有特点了。与门将一样，这个角色的性质在需要达到最高速度或覆盖很远的距离方面，对身体的要求并不高。然而，球员阅读比赛的能力会随着时间的推移而提高，有时会弥补球员晚年失去的速度。
On the other hand, full-backs peak far younger, with the majority of their minutes coming at 25. What’s interesting with full-backs — and deserving of an article in itself — is how the increasingly demanding nature of the role has impacted the age curve at the position. Full-backs are now asked to get up and down the pitch far more. They also need to be technically gifted and have a high level of tactical understanding. For that reason, they are likely to be one of the most athletic players on the pitch, which explains why fewer minutes are going to players in their late-20s.
另一方面，后卫的巅峰期要年轻得多，他们的大部分时间是在25岁。后卫的有趣之处在于--这本身就值得写一篇文章--后卫角色的要求越来越高，对这个位置的年龄曲线产生了影响。后卫现在被要求更多的在球场上来回跑动。他们还需要有技术上的天赋，并有高水平的战术理解。出于这个原因，他们可能是球场上运动量最大的球员之一，这也解释了为什么20多岁的球员上场时间越来越少。
It’s a similar story in central midfield, another position that requires plenty of ground to be covered at different speeds. The most common age for a player in this position is around 25, with a fairly large spread of players playing consistently between the ages of 24 and 30.
中场也是类似的情况，另一个需要以不同速度覆盖大量地面的位置。这个位置的球员最常见的年龄是25岁左右，有相当多的球员一直在24岁到30岁之间比赛。
As shown in the take-ons example previously, wingers and wide attackers hit their peak earlier, reaching the height of their powers around 26. It makes sense, then, that they see plenty of minutes in their early 20s and fall out of the game or are required to change position to stay in it by the time they hit their 30s.
正如之前的上场例子所示，边锋和大范围进攻者更早达到他们的巅峰，在26岁左右达到他们的巅峰。因此，他们在20岁出头的时候就能看到大量的时间，到了30多岁的时候就会退出比赛，或者被要求改变位置以保持状态，这也是有道理的。
Central attacking midfielders — or No 10s in non-data-speak — are the least common playing position on the pitch, as fewer teams are playing with a single playmaker these days. There’s a peak for them at age 26, but theirs is a position to take with a pinch of salt.
中央攻击型中场--用非数据语言来说就是10号--是球场上最不常见的球员位置，因为现在越来越少的球队使用单一的球员了。他们在26岁时有一个高峰期，但他们的位置是一个需要谨慎对待的位置。
Due to their relative scarcity in the modern game, there’s something of a sample bias here, with just 1,098 players in the last decade playing in that position in a single season and there only being 55 player records with 1,000 minutes or more. There’s an early spike around 22 years old in the data thanks to this, with Ross Barkley, Christian Eriksen, Oscar and Dele Alli to name just a few all featuring heavily in the Premier League at that age.
由于他们在现代比赛中的相对稀缺性，这里有一些样本偏差，在过去的十年中，只有1098名球员在单赛季中打过这个位置，只有55名球员记录了1000分钟或以上。由于这个原因，数据中22岁左右出现了一个早期的高峰，罗斯-巴克利、克里斯蒂安-埃里克森、奥斯卡和德勒-阿里等人都是在这个年龄段在英超联赛中表现出色。
Finally, strikers seem to have the most well-defined ageing pattern of all the positions. They rise to prominence in their early 20s and peak around 27, with only the proper outliers able to sustain themselves in the game past their early 30s. Similarly to centre-backs, their feeling of the game increases over time, but they are limited more by the physical drop-off in their late 20s and early 30s.
最后，前锋似乎是所有位置中最明确的老龄化模式。他们在20岁出头时崭露头角，在27岁左右达到顶峰，只有适当的异类能够在比赛中维持到30岁出头。与中后卫类似，他们对比赛的感觉随着时间的推移而增加，但他们在20多岁和30多岁时更多地受到体力下降的限制。
Taking all of this into account means that a rough band of “peak ages” can be formed for each positional group. This is calculated by taking the peak year and adding and subtracting a year from either side. For goalkeepers, any player aged between 27 and 29 will be considered in their peak. For full-backs and central midfielders, that’s any player aged 24 to 26.
考虑到所有这些，意味着可以为每个位置组形成一个粗略的 "高峰年龄 "带。计算方法是将巅峰年限与两侧的年限相加或相减。对于门将来说，任何年龄在27至29岁之间的球员都将被视为处于高峰期。对于后卫和中场来说，任何年龄在24至26岁之间的球员都属于高峰期。
With this data, a more custom squad profile can be built, showing a more appropriate peak age banding. Here’s what that looks like for Arsenal, with them having plenty of pre-peak players across the pitch.
有了这些数据，就可以建立一个更加定制的球队概况，显示一个更合适的高峰年龄段。下面是阿森纳的情况，他们在整个球场上有很多高峰期前的球员。
Arsenal are a particularly pertinent team to consider because considering all players who’ve played 400 minutes or more in the league this season, Arsenal’s are on average 1.6 years away from reaching their peak, the lowest of any side in the league and almost double that of Aston Villa’s 0.9 years away from their hypothetical peak. At the other end of the scale are Watford, whose most common starters are 3.0 years beyond their peak on average, most likely dragged up by their veteran 38-year-old goalkeeper Ben Foster.
阿森纳是一支特别值得考虑的球队，因为考虑到本赛季所有在联赛中出场400分钟以上的球员，阿森纳的球员平均还有1.6年才能达到他们的巅峰，是联赛中所有球队中最低的，几乎是阿斯顿维拉的0.9年的两倍。在天平的另一端是沃特福德，他们最常见的首发球员平均超过他们的巅峰期3.0年，很可能是被他们38岁的老门将本-福斯特拖累的。
Over the next 10 days, we will be running individual pieces using the peak age of positions to look at the squad profiles of each Premier League club, and those we cover closely in the English Football League and Scottish Premiership.
在接下来的10天里，我们将利用职位的峰值年龄来观察每个英超俱乐部的阵容情况，以及那些我们密切关注的英格兰足球联赛和苏格兰超级联赛。
(Photos: Getty Images; Design: Tom Slator)
(照片: Getty Images; 设计: Tom Slator)