“Why aren’t players shooting? I blame the coaching. It’s being slowly coached out of the game by the likes of Guardiola, Arteta, and Rodgers”
"为什么球员不投篮？我指责教练。瓜迪奥拉、阿尔特塔和罗杰斯等人正在慢慢把它从比赛中调教出来"
So tweeted one football fan recently, questioning whether the most enjoyable part of the beautiful game was changing before their very eyes.
一位足球迷最近在推特上这样说，质疑美丽的比赛中最令人愉快的部分是否在他们眼前发生变化。
Parking the suggestion to one side that some of the Premier League’s most modern coaches are having a negative effect on the game, it is interesting to look at trends in shooting behaviour.
将英超联赛的一些最现代的教练对比赛产生负面影响的建议放在一边，看看射门行为的趋势是很有趣的。
Has there been a shift between the quantity and quality of shots in the Premier League?
英超联赛中射门的数量和质量是否发生了变化？
In the football analytics sphere, a lot of work has been done to understand how certain variables influence a chance of scoring a goal.
在足球分析领域，为了了解某些变量如何影响进球的机会，已经做了大量的工作。
It will surprise no one to know that the closer you are to goal, the higher the chance you have of scoring, but in the age of expected goals (xG) and the growing importance of data within professional clubs, we can now quantify the probability that a given shot will lead to a goal — accounting for many factors such as the angle from goal, or how many defenders are in the way. For today, we are going to largely focus on one of the key factors — shot distance.
没有人会惊讶于你离球门越近，你的进球机会就越大，但在预期进球（xG）的时代，以及职业俱乐部内数据越来越重要的情况下，我们现在可以量化给定射门导致进球的概率--考虑到许多因素，如离球门的角度，或有多少后卫挡在前面。今天，我们将主要关注其中一个关键因素--射门距离。
We know that a penalty has an approximately 75 per cent chance of resulting in a goal. A shot from outside the box? Somewhere in the region of five to 10 per cent depending on the context — significantly less likely than a shot taken within the penalty area.
我们知道，一个点球有大约75%的机会导致进球。从禁区外射门？根据具体情况，大约在5%到10%之间--明显低于在禁区内射门的可能性。
Aside from keeping us analytics folks busy at our laptops, it is important to explore how much this increased understanding of shots has influenced what actually occurs on the field. After all, football is not played on spreadsheets…
除了让我们这些做分析的人在笔记本电脑前忙碌之外，重要的是要探讨这种对投篮理解的增加对球场上实际发生的事情有多大影响。毕竟，足球不是在电子表格上进行的...
If analytics has had any influence in the modern game, we should see an evolution in the locations of shots taken towards higher quality areas closer to the goal. This may not please the fan in the stadium yelling “shooooottt!!” when their midfielder picks up a loose ball on the edge of the area, but it would keep Pep Guardiola et al happy to know that players are making better decisions around the penalty area.
如果分析法对现代比赛有任何影响，我们应该看到射门的位置向更靠近球门的高质量区域演变。这可能不会让球场上的球迷高兴，当他们的中场球员在禁区边缘捡到一个松散的球时，他们会大喊 "shoooottt!!"，但它会让瓜迪奥拉等人高兴，因为他们知道球员在禁区内做出了更好的决定。
First up, let’s explore whether the volume of shots has actually changed over the last decade in the Premier League. Looking at the graphic below, you can see a steady decline in the average number of shots per game. Where fans were seeing 28.4 non-penalty shots per game on average in 2011-12, they are now seeing 23.9 per game as of last season — nearly five shots fewer in a single match.
首先，让我们来探讨一下在过去的十年中，英超联赛的射门量是否真的发生了变化。看看下面的图表，你可以看到每场比赛的平均射门次数在稳步下降。在2011-12赛季，球迷平均每场比赛看到28.4次非罚球的射门，而现在截至上赛季，他们每场比赛看到23.9次射门--单场比赛几乎减少了5次。
Now, although it’s difficult to infer the causality of this downward trend over time, it is also difficult to ignore the role that analytics is likely to have played in such outcomes on the pitch. Crucially, with fewer non-penalty shots being taken per game compared with 10 years ago, has that also meant fewer goals? The good news is: no.
现在，虽然很难推断这种下降趋势的因果关系，但也很难忽视分析技术在球场上的这种结果中可能发挥的作用。最关键的是，与10年前相比，每场比赛的非罚球射门次数减少，这是否也意味着进球减少？好消息是：没有。
The 17 per cent decrease in shots per game between 2011-12 and 2020-21 is not matched in the goals per game in that same period. The 2.4 non-penalty goals per game last season was a slight reduction from the 2.6 per game in 2011-12 but the decline is not as steep as we have seen for shots.
2011-12赛季至2020-21赛季期间，每场比赛的射门次数减少了17%，但同期的每场比赛的进球数却没有相应的减少。上赛季每场2.4个非罚球的进球比2011-12赛季的每场2.6个略有减少，但下降幅度没有我们看到的射门那么大。
So, with fewer shots taken but not a significant change in goals scored, what’s going on?
那么，射门次数减少，但进球数却没有明显变化，这是怎么回事呢？
It looks as though the influence of analytics and time spent on the training pitch is sanding off the edges in reducing those low-value shots. Looking at the percentage of open-play shots taken from outside of the box over time, we can see that there is a noticeable decline. Where previously there were as many as 47 per cent of shots taken outside the penalty area, this was a lot lower last season (38 per cent).
看起来，分析的影响和在训练场上花费的时间正在磨去减少那些低价值射门的边缘。观察一段时间内从禁区外射门的百分比，我们可以看到有明显的下降。以前有多达47%的禁区外射门，而在上个赛季，这一比例要低得多（38%）。
Call it a coincidence, but with the emergence of xG from 2013 onwards, lower-value shots have declined as analytics-driven insight has grown.
可以说是巧合，但随着2013年起xG的出现，随着分析驱动的洞察力的增长，低价值的镜头已经下降了。
Of course, we assume that this reduction in longer-range shots has come in exchange for making that extra pass to create a more productive shooting opportunity — that may not always be the case and there could be some merit in shooting from distance… sometimes.
当然，我们假设这种长距离投篮的减少是为了换取额外的传球来创造更多的投篮机会--这可能并不总是如此，远距离投篮可能有一些好处......有时。
Shooting from range can lead to lucrative actions within the next few seconds, like a rebound, a corner, or a deflection through crowded bodies. Meanwhile, simple mathematical probability will show that adding an extra variable (ie, a pass for a team-mate to control and shoot) could lead to a reduced likelihood of a goal if the pass is unsuccessful.
射门可以在接下来的几秒钟内导致有利可图的行动，比如一个反弹，一个角球，或者通过拥挤的身体偏转。同时，简单的数学概率会显示，如果传球不成功，增加一个额外的变量（即传给队友控制和射门）可能会导致进球的可能性降低。
Nevertheless, it’s fun to look at who has the highest average shot distance in the Premier League over the past decade. Filtering for players who have had 200 or more open-play shots since 2011-12, there are some predictable candidates among the top 20 who tend to ignore the xG gods.
尽管如此，看看谁在过去十年里在英超联赛中拥有最高的平均射门距离是很有趣的。筛选出自2011-12赛季以来有200次或更多空位射门的球员，在前20名中有一些可预测的候选人，他们往往忽略了xG神的存在。
Charlie Adam’s time at Liverpool and Stoke in the 2010s saw him average the highest average distance of a given shot in open play, pulling the trigger from 27.6 yards on average, with 82 per cent of his shots coming outside the box. Granted, he did find the back of the net six times when shooting outside the box, but he was not known for “playing the percentages” when shooting from range.
查理-亚当在2010年代在利物浦和斯托克城的时候，他在公开比赛中的平均射门距离最高，平均在27.6码处扣动扳机，82%的射门是在禁区外。当然，他在禁区外射门时确实有6次找到了球门后部，但他在射门时并不以 "打百分比 "著称。
As a former team-mate at Liverpool, Jonjo Shelvey is just behind Adam with an average distance of 27.4 yards from a given shot. Shelvey has been a tad more successful, with 12 goals scored in open play from outside the box in that time.
作为利物浦的前队友，乔乔-谢尔维仅次于亚当，他的平均射门距离为27.4码。谢尔维的成功率更高一些，在这段时间里，他在禁区外的公开比赛中打进了12个球。
At the other end of the scale, we can look at which players average the shortest distance from goal for a given shot — removing headers to avoid a skew towards all the burly centre-backs going up for corners. Here, we see Gabriel Jesus electing to shoot from the closest distance with an average shot from just 12.9 yards out.
在天平的另一端，我们可以看看哪些球员的平均射门距离最短--除去头球，以避免偏向于所有粗壮的中后卫上去开角球。在这里，我们看到加布里埃尔-热苏斯选择从最近的距离射门，他的平均射门距离只有12.9码。
As much as 88 per cent of Jesus’ shots have been within the penalty area, as the Brazilian looks to be the poster boy for Pep Guardiola’s mantra to get the ball into highly valuable areas to shoot.
耶稣多达88%的射门都在禁区内，因为巴西人看起来是瓜迪奥拉让球进入高价值区域射门的口号的海报男孩。
Back to the serious stuff.
回到严肃的事情上。
Over time, we are seeing a lower share of shots being taken outside the box, so it would naturally follow that the average distance of a shot taken has become closer to goal over the years.
随着时间的推移，我们看到在禁区外射门的比例越来越低，因此，这些年来，射门的平均距离自然也就越来越接近球门。
Inspired by the work of others, we can contrast the locations of shots between the 2011-12 season and last season to highlight that change over time — this includes all shots in open play, and removes headed attempts on goal.
受他人工作的启发，我们可以对比2011-12赛季和上赛季的射门位置，以强调随着时间的推移而发生的变化--这包括所有在开放性比赛中的射门，并删除了对球门的尝试。
Much like the trends across the other top five European leagues, we can see that, on average, players in the Premier League are shooting closer to goal. The median — or average — distance of a given shot in 2020-21 was 18.1 yards, down from 20.9 yards in 2011-12. This might not sound significant, but it represents a noticeable shift towards goal when considering the volume of shots taken.
The density map of the shots below neatly highlights that contrast in shot locations across each season. The brighter the red colour, the higher the number of shots within that location. Note the brighter red area outside the box in 2011-12, which is absent in 2020-21 in exchange for a higher volume of shots inside the area.
下面的镜头密度图巧妙地突出了每个季节的镜头位置的对比。红色越亮，该位置的射门次数就越多。请注意，2011-12赛季方框外的红色区域较亮，而2020-21赛季则没有，以换取该区域内更多的射门。
Of course, there will be variation between teams to inform this league-wide average, so a closer look at that spread is worthwhile.
当然，各队之间会有差异，以告知这个全联盟的平均数，所以仔细看看这个差值是值得的。
In 2011-12, Arsenal’s tag of “always trying to walk it in” under Arsene Wenger was backed up by the numbers as their average shot distance of 16.5 yards was the lowest in the league. This was closely followed by the title rivals of Manchester United and Manchester City, whose matching average shot distance mirrored their matching final points tally with the league decided by that Aguero goal.
在2011-12赛季，阿森纳在温格的带领下 "总是试图把球打进 "的标签得到了数据的支持，因为他们的平均射门距离为16.5码，是联赛中最低的。紧随其后的是曼联和曼城这两个冠军对手，他们的平均射门距离反映了他们的最终积分，联赛由阿圭罗的进球决定。
Elsewhere, there was little to choose between much of the sides but the wider trend showed a large proportion of teams being on the wrong side of 20 yards in their average shot distance.
在其他地方，大部分球队之间几乎没有选择，但更广泛的趋势显示，很大一部分球队的平均射门距离都在20码的错误一侧。
Contrast that with the 2020-21 season and you can see that average has notably reduced across the league. Where previously there were 17 teams whose average shot distance was at, or above, 20 yards, Burnley are the only team in the league to hit that average last season.
与2020-21赛季相比，你可以看到整个联盟的平均水平明显下降。之前有17支球队的平均射门距离达到或超过20码，而伯恩利是上赛季联盟中唯一达到这一平均水平的球队。
The margins are small, but it shows that the league average is not significantly skewed by a select few teams, and that there is a change in shooting behaviour across the board.
幅度很小，但它表明，联盟的平均水平并没有被选定的几支球队明显歪曲，而且在整个投篮行为上也有变化。
Zooming out once more, we can visualise this change across the league in each of the previous 10 seasons to see how the shooting distance and locations have evolved.
再一次放大，我们可以直观地看到过去10个赛季中每个赛季整个联盟的这种变化，看看射门距离和地点是如何演变的。
The 2013-14 season had the highest average shot distance of this period, with 21.1 yards showing that plenty of players were trying their luck from further out. The most notable long-range shooters that season included the relentless Adam, with 88 per cent of his shots from outside the box, the same rate as Tom Huddlestone and Andros Townsend, who were slightly ahead of Shelvey (79 per cent) and Yohan Cabaye (74 per cent).
2013-14赛季的平均射门距离是这一时期最高的，21.1码显示，很多球员都在更远的地方尝试他们的运气。那个赛季最引人注目的远射手包括无情的亚当，他88%的射门来自于禁区外，与汤姆-哈德斯通和安德罗斯-汤森的射门率相同，他们略微领先于谢尔维（79%）和尤罕-卡巴耶（74%）。
The 2019-20 season had the lowest average shot distance of the past 10 years, with a median distance of 17.6 yards — the only season with an average that was within the distance of the penalty area.
2019-20赛季的平均射门距离是过去10年中最低的，中位距离为17.6码--这是唯一一个平均射门距离在禁区内的赛季。
So our friend from Twitter did have a point, then… players are, on average, shooting a little less than they used to. The data tells that story quite clearly. There is a conscious decision being made by coaches and players to work the ball closer to goal before shooting.
因此，我们的Twitter朋友确实有一个观点，那么......平均而言，球员的投篮次数比以前少一点。数据很清楚地说明了这个问题。教练和球员有意识地决定在射门前把球打近。
But unlike that tweet suggested, it’s by no means restricted to teams coached by Guardiola, Arteta and Rodgers. It’s across the whole league. The average shot distance of Premier League clubs is shortening considerably. Just look at Chelsea — nearly four and a half yards was trimmed off their average shot distance between 2010-11 (21.7) and 2020-21 (17.3).
但不像那条推特所说的那样，这绝不是仅限于瓜迪奥拉、阿尔特塔和罗杰斯执教的球队。这是整个联盟的情况。英超俱乐部的平均射门距离正在大大缩短。看看切尔西--在2010-11赛季（21.7）和2020-21赛季（17.3）之间，他们的平均射门距离被缩短了近4.5码。
Although distance from goal is just one of the many factors that influence a team’s likelihood of scoring, clubs have wised up to the fact that speculative shots are less likely to get them what they need to win games: goals.
尽管距离球门的距离只是影响球队进球可能性的众多因素之一，但俱乐部已经意识到，投机性的射门不太可能为他们带来赢得比赛所需的东西：进球。
(Photos: Getty Images/Design: Sam Richardson)
(图片: Getty Images/设计: Sam Richardson)